TF Daily Swing Adds To Long Position

SPY getting a substantial bid

Despite the weakness in the market. People are paying up for leveraged long positions. We'll see how this plays out. Usually we would see the reaction sometime tomorrow...should be a several day affair if that happens. However, I will be watching to see if leverages position get thrown out or continue to see demand tomorrow

Risk Management Protocols

Below is a non optimized or risk managed HLA system (in fact, its the new EURUSD Forex system) running on ES 1 minute data. The ideas was to make a real system trade badly. So, there are a few drawdown trades. Using stops would have eliminated a substantial portion of the profitable trades that the system did execute - so they would not really have been risk management after all. So, there is a major problem. How can you trade without stops?

Below is the same system with the PLLimits engine managing profit and loss rules for hourly and daily trading. 

Below is the result of driving the PLController module with PLLimits processed risk decisions.

The objective here was not to make a perfect system. In fact it was quite the opposite. The objective was to manage a highly imperfect system without constraining trade decisions or resorting to stops.

Russell 2000 Futures Update

Above is the current status of the TF Daily Swing System. It has not added to its long position as you can see. This is a countertrend trade with mixed views among key systems, therefore, position sizes are reduced. I am confident that the system will handle this trade as respectably as possible and will be looking for entries for shorts sometime soon.

I have not been updating the blog that frequently because I have just moved and am getting things setup additionally to working on a significant release of my trade control software and risk management interface within the module.

Taking Photographs At The Johnny Cash Festival

Each time I go to an event with my camera in hand, I never know what to expect.  I love to wander around and snap away at what I think looks interesting and there were a lot of interesting people at the Johnny Cash music festival.  I am naturally drawn to the different and unexpected and this festival didn't disappoint.  A lot of the women were dressed and made up, vintage style and I loved all of their looks.  It was as if you took a step back in time.

As soon as I walked in the gate, there were pin up contestants walking around with their number on a stick and even the "non contestants" were dressed perfectly.  I am not one to walk up and introduce myself right away since I am a little shy, but I did and asked these women to pose for me.  I didn't know them or anything about them but instantly I had visions of the beautiful varga pin up models and asked them to do a few poses for me.  Their hair and make up were perfectly put together and it's fitting since they are both stylists of pin up and hair design.  I imagined them constantly checking to see if their lipstick was perfect (this coming from someone who doesn't wear make up) so I asked them to look in the car mirror to check.  They both glanced in the mirror and I snapped this picture.

Also, I like to photograph people to look larger than life sometimes.  That requires me to get on the ground which doesn't bother me since I usually roll around in the sand or grass with the dogs to get an eye level shot of them.  This picture is the result of doing just that.

I don't see many photographs of me taking photographs so it's always interesting to see what I look like when I take pictures...well to me anyway since most of my friends always see me hidden behind a camera.  I consider myself a work in progress but I am having fun documenting what I see and sharing that with you.  A big thank you to the photographer, Rick Miller for allowing me to use these two photographs he took of me and to the very patient and beautiful models, Meredith and Noni.

The Long Beach Roller Derby

In the midst of getting ready to leave to drive around the country, I thought it was a good idea to get out for some local entertainment, or how the derby describes it is, "girl on girl traction."  Lucky for me, the Long Beach Roller Derby was having their second bout so I had to go watch this exciting event!  I missed the opening night since I thought it would be ok just to show up.  Big mistake.  For the second time, the event sold out.  I learned my lesson and bought the tickets early.

When I arrived, the line to get in was pretty long.  I snapped pictures of the crowd and this little girl caught my attention.  She was so interested in the roller girl, but hiding behind her parents as she watched her skate away.

The moment I walked in the door, I knew I was in for a fun night.  They had vender booths, food stands, and live music to entertain the crowd as we waited patiently for it to begin.

I walked around the rink and searched for a spot to sit down.  Once the announcer made it clear that it was ok to sit on the floor up to the red line, that's exactly where I went.  I sat on the corner of the red line on the floor next to the seats of the players.  I think I grabbed the best seat in the house, outside of the players seats.

I really didn't know what to expect but I have to say it was fun even though, for the most part, I didn't know what was going on.  I caught up with some of the rules as the night progressed and if you can't follow along, it's ok...you'll still have fun.

I enjoyed taking pictures of the women playing and a part of me was nostalgic watching them out there.  I played college basketball and coached women's basketball after college and I miss the comradery of being on a team. It's so nice to see these ladies out there having a great time, and looking especially put together while doing it.

If you've never been to a roller derby bout in person, I would recommend it.  It's fun for the entire family.  I bet afterwards, you will want to dust off your quads and give roller skating another try.

I have too many photographs to show here...for more of my photographs from the night of roller derby action, click HERE.

Thank you for the fun night ladies!  I hope you are not too sore today.

TF Swing System Adds To Long Position

I apologize for the getting this out late...but I have been moving both my office and home so yesterday and today (actually this week) have been crazy.

Interview with Jimmy Moore

About two months ago, I did an interview with Jimmy Moore of the Livin' la Vida Low Carb internet empire. I hardly remember what we talked about, but I think it went well. I enjoyed Jimmy's pleasant and open-minded attitude. Head over to Jimmy's website and listen to the interview here.

I do recall making at least one mistake. When discussing heart attacks,I said "atrial fibrillation" when I meant "ventricular fibrillation".

TF Daily Swing Triggers Long at current levels

What a whacked out market...well, looks like the next short, probably in July will be the one to watch.

SSO and BGU 34 minute systems exit long entries

First losing trade in a long time. Down around $6,000 for $200,000 or so in positions. I have built a method to filter entries such as this to require higher tolerances for triggers especially after many winning trades in a row such as these systems have had. Additionally, the functionality should reduce dollar allocation as well. That technology is not implemented in the trades indicated.

One other thing to note is that, I reduce allocation to trading intermediate-term/intraday systems when there is a turn going on or conflict internally with the models agreeing on direction. I prefer trading the swing systems until the situation clears up.

Taking Photographs Of Kids

As you know, I love taking photographs of dogs.  Besides the fact that I love all animals and especially dogs, it might be because they usually don't know what you are doing.  The same holds true with Children, depending on the age and if their parents take a lot of photographs of them.  Kids are fun to photograph because you never know what kind of reaction you will get when you point a camera in their direction.  Ok, I am not saying children are like dogs, I am just explaining that the innocence is pure, refreshing, and that you should always expect the unexpected.

I love the unscripted look.  The moment in time when someone forgets there is a camera or relaxes enough that their personality shines through.  Kids are usually unscripted and they do whatever they want, when they want and they won't fake a smile if they don't feel like smiling.  There is something refreshing about that.  With adults, sometimes I have to hide the camera for the perfect moment when they are not looking or tell them to pretend that I'm not there.  For the most part they look away and pretend they don't see me with a big smile on their face.

The past few months, I've been lucky enough to get some candid photographs of children.  I don't know why, but this black and white photograph of a little girl at the Johnny Cash festival (top left)  is one of my personal favorites.  I love the way she is looking at me.  To me, she is fierce and fearless and from the looks of it, she does what she wants...when she wants.

My heart goes out to her mother.

The past few months, I was able to witness kids at play at a Northern Arizona Ranch, Alumapalooza, Venice and at the Johnny Cash festival.  All different personalities, but all doing what kids do best...being themselves.

More big words from Soros - nationalism, social unrest and xenophobia

"Right now the Germans are dragging their neighbours into deflation, which threatens a long phase of stagnation. And that leads to nationalism, social unrest and xenophobia. Democracy itself could be at risk." The comments have little impact on the euro; +0.1% vs. the dollar. - George Soros

SPY finally finding a bid

The exit from leverage has been slowing and the cash market is now modestly/relatively discounted...by rights there should be some attempt at rallying somewhere in here.

In Search of Traditional Asian Diets

It's been difficult for me to find good information on Asian diets prior to modernization. Traditional Chinese, Taiwanese and Japanese diets are sometimes portrayed as consisting mostly of white rice, with vegetables and a bit of meat and soy, but I find that implausible. Rice doesn't grow everywhere, and removing all the bran was prohibitively labor-intensive before the introduction of modern machine milling. One hundred years ago, bran was partially removed by beating or grinding in a mortar and pestle, as it still is in parts of rural Asia today. Only the wealthy could afford true white rice.

Given the difficulty of growing rice in most places, and hand milling it, the modern widespread consumption of white rice in Asia must be a 20th century phenomenon, originating in the last 20-100 years depending on location. Therefore, white rice consumption does not predate the emergence of the "diseases of civilization" in Asia.

In the book Western Diseases: Their Emergence and Prevention, there are several accounts of traditional Asian diets I find interesting.

Taiwan in 1980

The staple constituent of the diet is polished white rice. Formerly in the poorer areas along the sea coast the staple diet was sweet potato, with small amounts of white rice added. Formerly in the mountains sweet potato, millet and taro were the staple foods. During the last 15 years, with the general economic development of the whole island, white polished rice has largely replaced other foods. There is almost universal disinclination to eat brown (unpolished) rice, because white rice is more palatable, it bears kudos, cooking is easier and quicker, and it can be stored for a much longer period.

Traditionally, coronary heart disease and high blood pressure were rare, but the prevalence is now increasing rapidly. Stroke is common. Diabetes was rare but is increasing gradually.

Mainland China

China is a diverse country, and the food culture varies by region.

Snapper (1965)… quoted an analysis by Guy and Yeh of Peiping (Peking) diets in 1938. There was a whole cereal/legume/vegetable diet for poorer people and a milled-cereal/meat/vegetable diet for the richer people.

Symptoms of vitamin A, C and D deficiency were common in the poor, although coronary heart disease and high blood pressure were rare. Diabetes occurred at a higher rate than in most traditionally-living populations.

Japan

On the Japanese island of Okinawa, the traditional staple is the sweet potato, with a smaller amount of rice eaten as well. Seafood, vegetables, pork and soy are also on the menu. In Akira Kurosawa’s movie Seven Samurai, set in 16th century mainland Japan, peasants ate home-processed millet and barley, while the wealthy ate white rice. Although a movie may not be the best source of information, I suspect it has some historical basis.

White Rice: a Traditional Asian Staple?

It depends on your perspective. How far back do you have to go before you can call a food traditional? Many peoples' grandparents ate white rice, but I doubt their great great grandparents ate it frequently. White rice may have been a staple for the wealthy for hundreds of years in some places. But for most of Asia, in the last few thousand years, it was probably a rare treat. The diet most likely resembled that of many non-industrial African cultures: an assortment of traditionally prepared grains, root vegetables, legumes, vegetables and a little meat.

Please add any additional information you may have about traditional Asian diets to the comments section.

ES Daily Swing System Covers

It may be premature, but the ES Daily Swing covered its short for a very nice profit. A warning sign for me is the bounce in the dollar may only be wave B and therefore the dollar may move lower for a new countertrend low and thus the market may trap a bunch of shorts again! surprise surprise. Very difficult setups in this market.

Note: SSO Daily, and ES Daily Income covered on the close also.

Obama Administration Knew About Deepwater Horizon 35,000 Feet Well Bore

Not the we did not know that Obama is a good actor...if this does not clear up who the government is working for I don't know what will...THEY ARE NOT WORKING FOR US! Do you think we need a war with Iran? Apparently, Bernake and Obama do. Two weeks before the spill Obama opens up the Gulf for drilling...this is why:

President Obama and Secretary of Interior Ken Salazar, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates were informed that BP would drill an unprecedented 35,000 feet well bore at the Macondo site off the coast of Louisiana. In September 2009, the Deepwater Horizon successfully sunk a well bore at a depth of 35,055 below sea level at the Tiber Prospect in the Keathley Canyon block 102 in the Gulf of Mexico, southeast of Houston. 

During the September drilling operations, the Deepwater Horizon drill penetrated a massive undersea oil deposit but BP's priorities changed when the Macondo site in the Mississippi Canyon off the coast of Louisiana was found to contain some 3-4 billion barrels of oil in an underground cavern estimated to be about the size of Mount Everest. It was as a result of another 35,000 feet well bore sank by the Deepwater Horizon at the Macondo site that the catastrophic explosion occurred on April 20.

According to the Wayne Madsen Report (WMR) sources within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Pentagon and Interior and Energy Departments told the Obama Administration that the newly-discovered estimated 3-4 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico would cover America's oil needs for up to eight months if there was a military attack on Iran that resulted in the bottling up of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic, resulting in a cut-off of oil to the United States from the Persian Gulf.

Obama, Salazar, Chu, and Gates green-lighted the risky Macondo drilling operation from the outset, according to WMR's government sources.

WMR learned that BP was able to have several safety checks waved because of the high-level interest by the White House and Pentagon in tapping the Gulf of Mexico bonanza find in order to plan a military attack on Iran without having to be concerned about an oil and natural gas shortage from the Persian Gulf after an outbreak of hostilities with Iran.

BP still has an ongoing operation to drill down to 40,000 feet below sea level at the Liberty field off the north coast of Alaska.

Source: click here

SSO and BGU 34 minute systems take long entries

Short-term systems looking for bounce...

And So We Begin Again... (The Big Road Trip, Part 3)

The countdown has begun.

It's time to pack what I think I need in my car and head out on the open road.  This will be my third year wandering this country, while it being my second in a tent.  I've seen most of the states and this time around will be different from the last few years.

Well, each time is always different but I am looking forward to sharing my adventure with you through photographs and perhaps a slide show every so often.  I have a few projects in mind for the journey and I look forward to sharing more of that as well.

I am looking forward to learning more about the towns and people we don't hear about in the news.  People that make this country great but who live a quiet life outside of a spotlight.  I will be camping in new areas, taking side trips to oddball attractions, visiting some friends along the way and for the most part, taking it day by day to see where the road takes me and my co-pilot, Max.

Many of my friends and family are asking me where I am headed.  The fact is, I don't really know.  I know I will try and follow the weather as best as I can since I will be in a tent and Max doesn't tend to be a fan of cold temperatures.  I look forward to meeting interesting people and introducing those people to you.  Here are a few pictures of fellow Americans I've met in the last few months and I am excited to introduce more to you in the upcoming months.

Thank you so much for all of your encouragement and support.  If you know of a spot or town that I shouldn't miss, I would love to hear about it.  I can always be reached at alisontravels@gmail.com

I look forward to sharing more soon!

SSO and BGU 34 minute systems close longs

at the open. These systems have been working very nicely as hedges for the short positions that the swing systems are building. Today looks like it will add another short entry at the close for the swing systems.

40 Years of oil exploration in the gulf...

The most consistent attribute has been cronyist governmental regulation and support. The government is the partner and facilitating investor making the whole charade possible. Corporatist regulation has legalized what was not legal or too risky. Now a company can drill say - "we did nothing wrong"...ironically, the reason the government is posturing with hollow efforts and promises is that they want the exact same thing. "We, your government did nothing wrong. BP's ass is the one we want to nail..." That is what everyone wants - a finger to point while protecting their conflicted adgenda.

This well should have been blown up when it mattered and would not have caused secondary methane and gas explosions of mammoth proportions. Obama and the government knew that. So, why are we here?...feels like familiar territory.


Here's a good summary of the governments statements/view.

The Johnny Cash Music Festival And Pin Up Show

Yesterday, I took a trip to the Ventura County fairgrounds to do some people watching and watch some live bands who play tribute to Johnny Cash.  If you like hot rods, rockabilly style, Johnny Cash, Pin Up models and sunshine...this was the place to be.

I took my camera with me and most everyone was willing to pose for a photograph.  In fact, a lot of the pin up models trying out for the competition were more than happy to strike a pose and do whatever I asked them to for a shot.  I had a great time taking pictures of these ladies and processing the photos to look like it was a step back in time.

The sun was out, there were great bands playing and everyone was in great spirits. A good time had by all.

A big thank you to everyone who took the time to pose for me during the day.  I appreciate you watching me mock up what I wanted you to do and doing it with enthusiasm and style.  I was pretty impressed at your willingness to kneel down to the car level in your 6 inch heels, pretend to check your make up in the mirror, turn around to show your stockings, pose in pin up style next to a car and do it all with a smile.  I am not one to tell people how to pose for a shot so I appreciate the natural style you brought to the photograph.

You can see more photographs from my time at the festival by clicking HERE

Not to be too depressing...I think its reasonable to relook at Chernobyl

The BP/US oil spill is an example of what cronyism and bad policies can do. However, we must remember that finance IS government in our world currently. The russians have just proposed a new Global Supranational currency while the fiat system is on its last legs and this ultimate coverup, no matter who it is proposed by, is simply a farce. A new debt system (or more accurately debt currency) can not be adopted now. And by design the objective of the current system is to complete a comprehensive wealth transfer from the people to the cronyists. Simply, look at Russia and the US - both shining examples of the process at work. But it has only just begun.

Here it is,” Medvedev told reporters today in L’Aquila, Italy, after a summit of the Group of Eight nations. “You can see it and touch it.”

The coin, which bears the words “unity in diversity,” was minted in Belgium and presented to the heads of G-8 delegations, Medvedev said.

The question of a supranational currency “concerns everyone now, even the mints,” Medvedev said. The test coin “means they’re getting ready. I think it’s a good sign that we understand how interdependent we are.” - July 10 (Bloomberg)

Some of the sad consequences of inappropriate financial policies are mammoth detonations. The oil spill, our banking crisis, the housing crisis, Chernobyl, various wars and the upcoming depression are all examples. I think that its important to realize exactly how delicate and frail this whole thing is. What happens when more bad decisions are made? What happens when funding is not available to maintain hazardous disaster zones? What happens if war/depression or terrorism facilitates an attack on an aging disaster like Chernobyl or other Oil Wells? Given how woefully unprepared we are for a simple Oil spill and Russia was for Chernobyl, it seems that in a depression there is considerable risk to the assumption that resources will be appropriately placed, developed or available to ensure things remain stable with the current risk elements...especially when we have CEO's and politicians worried more about their bank accounts and special interests than the responsibilities they were assigned and chose.

A friend (as well as many others or her age group in southern Germany) had her thyroid removed due to cancerous growths, most likely related to the radioactive cloud that covered europe from Chenobyl when she was 19 or so. She was not warned to stay in doors until it was much too late and no one knew or was told at the time that a second explosion was a high probability that it would have rendered the entirety or Europe uninhabitable.

The US/Western wars, imperialism and financial terrorism have, in my opinion, put us all at a significant risk if things were to get "uncomfortable" globally. This Oil Spill is a wake up call...and potentially just the tip of the iceberg of man-made or influenced disasters facilitated by our fiat system of government. I do not see our valueless currency system as a financial issue...our fiat system is a form of government, control and wealth transfer and what is happening in the markets is a form or rebellion.

I suggest that anyone of us "small people" upset with how this Oil Spill disaster was handled, look at its implications as far as how prepared or conflicted as a society we may be in other regards legacy and other issues that lie beneath the fancy rhetoric coming out of Washington, political and corporate leadership globally and the central bankers of our world.

If the global economies and currency systems fail...what happens to facilities like Chernobyl and many other high risk strategic initiatives that governments can no longer pay for or coordinate as effective managed catastrophes? Is the ever increasing US imperialism going to come to the rescue or be part of the problem?

Below is an excellent documentary on Chernobyl that everyone should see. My question is, how much have we really learned?

Oil Spill Update

Below is the oil slick as of the 19th:

Below is what the oil spill looked like 10 days ago...

Oil from the Deepwater Horizon rig lingered near the Mississippi Delta on June 10, 2010. The MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image the same day. The oil slick is pale gray, and the most conspicuous portion of the oil slick in this image appears near the Deepwater Horizon rig. A smaller, though still sizable, extension of the slick appears northeast of the rig. Clouds somewhat obscure the Mississippi Delta, northwest of the rig.

In photo-like satellite images, sunlight reflecting off the ocean surface and into the satellite sensor makes the oil slick easier to see. Oil smoothes the surface of the water, making it a better mirror of sunlight than the surrounding water. As a result, the oil appears lighter than oil-free surface waters.

My question is who we should be believing? Clearly, the government does not have control over the situation and all we need is a storm to turn this thing into a total disaster. Also, clearly the estimates by so called "experts" were required to be increased because how else could you explain these images. Clearly, those new estimates are optimistic (to be generous) as have been all the official statements regarding this issue.

Remember this type of betrayal by the government and corporate interests next time they try to smooth over some financial calamity. The lies in our system are just so preposterous, mammoth and conflicted that its almost beyond my capacity to understand.

How can a fed chief, many bank CEO's, several Oil company CEO's (among many others) and a president all lie their asses off, be totally off base or surreptitiously motivated and still have their jobs? It does not work that way for the rest of us.

Audit the fed - dead...or will the dead cat bounce bring it back

When the DOW falls 2,000 points the pressure on the Fed will start to heat up again...for now Bernake and cohorts have used the process of printing money to buy votes, power and legislation. It is not compliant with the foundations of this republic. The reality is that in any most legal jurisdictions it would be called criminal and be a punishable offense. However, finance is government and most of the officials in government work for finance driven causes since the payoff they get is apparently free money that makes them look good to their constituents. This money is provided at the behest of the Fed and large financial institutions regardless of the liabilities and imbalances it creates.

Structural blackmail is alive and well.

Value Added Tax and the bailout of US unfunded liabilities

...a brutal theft from all american's except the guys who stole the money in the first place.

This is not funny.

Venice Beach Skate Park

I've visited several skate parks and there is something about them that I love.  If you stop to observe for a while, you'll see the rules of the park.  Usually there aren't posted rules on how to use the park but after watching the skaters, you'll witness the unspoken rules, coordinated chaos, quiet competition, and the common love among the athletes to express themselves.

I think it's great that these kids and adults alike come out to play together.  By the looks of the crowds, there is a common respect and appreciation for the athletes who take a risk to entertain the onlookers.  To the kids out there, it can be practice and fun but when all eyes are on you, it takes a little more to get out to show the skills you have.

When I was a kid, I stood on my brothers skateboard and learned to spin around in place.  I was pretty proud of that event though that is the extent of my skill level.  I was interested in other sports at the time but I think if I were younger today, I would pick up skateboarding.  Yes, I know that adults can do it too but with my limited health insurance, I am not sure I want to risk it.  Instead, I will take pictures of the local pros doing their thing.  These photographs are from my day of watching the skaters at the Venice Beach Skate park.