Finally, the new release is out

After three months of very hard, frustrating and challenging effort, the new release of m3RVS is deployed. This release includes significant enhancements, a centralized trade controller, slippage reversal engine, risk manager and allocation pool capability. The improvements are dramatic for most of the systems and those results were already very strong.

I appreciate the patience and support of everyone who has been listening to me bicker about this release...but has been worth the effort, most definitely worth it in my book.

Below is an updated view of the new capabilities applied to the ES Swing strategy from inception. Average risk capital in trade, $34,000. For reference you can see the previous results here: RVS System Reference Performance Data for major index futures

Below is an updated view of the new capabilities applied to the ES Income strategy from inception. Average risk capital in trade, $20,000.

For both of these systems, they factor 1.5 points of slippage on the ES and $5 in and $5 out for trading expenses. There is no compounding (reinvestment of profits). In real trading, slippage reversal functions generally generate positive slippage for the systems in the market and trading fees are more like $1.5 to $2 per contract. 

ES Setup and the coming short...

The market is whacked, suffering from Fed-itis...the de-leveraging continues...bankrupting shorts in squeezes and bankrupting longs in panics. This market wants to move beyond probable levels to trigger false breakouts and breakdowns to ensure that it fulfills its "whacked" delegation.

These types of triggers, false breakouts and reversals, most frequently occur at derivative fibonacci levels not the primary ones. 1.272, 1.128 and .886 are the strongest magnets for people to think they misinterpreted the trade are are wrong footed. If we get follow through strength tomorrow, a powerful reversal is most probable in the region that I marked. (1106 to 1112 on the ES futures). Also, I would like to note that the reason these levels are important is that EVERYONE and their brother is watching the .382, .618 and .786 levels and virtually no one watches the derived levels...which is why they are natural psychological and fractal targets.

A reversal there will convince many market participants to play the upside breakout and buy any weakness thereafter...The caveat is, the weakness will actually be the follow through to last weeks probe to the downside that I posted about and that we traded.

The systems covered beautifully and are setup for shorts here. The income system for ES took entries this afternoon on the close in the 1091 area.

RVS ES Daily Income begins a short position and SP500 system overview

Whether or not the markets require more work to resolve the dynamic of the last weeks...any upside follow through on monday will likely lead to some pullback. If that pullback were to become something more extreme it would not surprise me. However, as I indicated, and counter to many bearish views, until the swing systems take shorts, I am not looking for a major inflection point on the upside just yet. I have stated before that it would be uncharacteristic for the SP500 swing systems not to catch a big short if one were setting up. I stand by that view.

Below are the charts of what is happening with some primary systems I trust for market moving triggers. I've also included the trade for trade equity curves. The ES swing system dates back to the inception of the futures contracts and is capitalized with around 20,000$ per trade. Please understand that to trade this system $20,000 represents an allocation amount and therefore represents a portion of an account.

RVS ES Daily Income

Dufus of dufuses...I have this model programmed to trade reversals but had the capability turned off. That has been updated on the trade servers and is in the latest release - so we WILL get reversal trades in live trading starting Monday. Below is the chart with reversal trades enabled. Obviously, we missed a trade. Also, below is a P&L for this Income system since inception of the ES e-mini futures (1999) with 10% of the profits reinvested. Starting risk capital is around $25,000.

RVS ES Daily Swing

Below is the same system with 10% of the profits reinvested. Starting weighted risk capital is around $25,000 for both PL's. All trades end of day market-on-close.

RVS SSO Daily Swing