Welcome To Canada! (I think)

Max and I decided to head to the border to Canada to meet some online friends.  The last time I was in this country, I was 10 so I don't really remember what it was like to cross the border. I suppose when you travel to another country, you need to have a specific plan in place.  As you know, I like to wander around and make up the journey as I go and I decided at the last minute to go north to meet some nice folks I found on the internet a while back that travel in their airstream part of the time and work at a motel when they are not traveling.

Sometimes I meet people without talking to them on the phone or even through email.  I don't remember how I came across Kim and Deb's blog, but I enjoyed it and Kim made a few comments on my blog so I decided to see what their life was like in Canada.

When asked why I was coming to Canada by the border police, I said, "I'm meeting some friends I met online."  Then they asked why I was meeting them, how I knew them, where they lived, etc.  Immediately, I was flagged as suspect and sent inside the office.  While in the office, I was asked the same questions.  It's a good thing I wrote down the address moments before crossing.  Even so, that didn't seem to justify my story.  The border police wanted her phone number so I dug in my email and supplied that to her.  Once I did, she looked at me with a very serious face and tone and said, "that phone number isn't from around here."  I said, "I don't know what to tell you, that's the number."  Her suspicions deepened and consequently, I had to go out to the car, take Max out and put him in a kennel so she could search the car.  While I was kenneling Max, she called Kim to see if her story matched mine, which it did.

After she searched the car, she came to me and said, "how come you have so much stuff in there?" Well, I am traveling for months in my car and I need things to camp with but I guess I need to travel lighter.  Who knows?  In the end she let Max and I proceed into the country.

What if I didn't have a destination in mind?  I am not sure that the country wants people wandering around seeing the sights.  I am glad I was able to get through and get on our way, regardless.

Just an hour away, we met Kim and Deb at the motel they run and lucky for us, they offered their 1974 Airstream Overlander to sleep in.  This was my first time sleeping in an Airstream and I know it won't be the last.  It was so nice to meet these two.  They treated us so well with their hospitality and cooked some delicious meals!  The area is pretty incredible.  Click HERE to visit their blog.  I look forward to sharing more of the sights with you soon.

Green Derivatives...just the thing to "fuel inject" the economic engine of the US

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Green Exchange got its approval from federal futures regulators this week to launch a trading platform that will list contracts tied to credits and allowances for greenhouses gases. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Friday it had approved the exchange's application Thursday. The announcement of its approval comes just one day after U.S. Senate Democrats decided to table a climate-change bill. That bill would have helped spur a much larger derivatives market to help companies offset their carbon emissions. 

Green Exchange was introduced in 2007 under the New York Mercantile Exchange and a group of banks and brokerages. Its products have been listed at Nymex, which is now owned by CME Group (CME 286.56, +4.84, +1.72%) . The CFTC said those products will now be listed on Green Exchange, which will become a stand-alone entity. 

A spokesman for Green Exchange couldn't be immediately reached for comment.
"We think the Green Exchange has all the right elements to really compete in the marketplace, and achieving the milestone of this approval one of those elements," said Evan Ard, managing director of Evolution Markets, a founding member of the venture. "But there's still a lot of work to be done to effectively compete in the marketplace." 

The CFTC's approval of the Green Exchange now sets the stage for competition between CME and its major rival IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE 108.36, +1.84, +1.73%) , which this year acquired the Climate Exchange PLC (CLE.LN) in a $597 million deal. 

ICE's acquisition will make it a dominant force in Europe's estimated EUR100 billion carbon market. The U.S. market is still quite small, although it has great potential to grow. Point Carbon, a consulting firm, expects the global carbon market to grow $170 billion this year. 

Both CME and ICE are targeting European and U.S. markets with their ventures. But Point Carbon estimated in March that 63% of the trading in the U.S. carbon market was done off-exchange. 

Without a climate-change bill, it could be challenging for both exchanges in the U.S. to build emissions-trading businesses. 

CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who has been advocating for a climate-change bill that will help create a large carbon futures market, said Friday he hadn't lost hope despite the Senate's inaction. 

"There has been and will be green trading," Chilton said. "The question now is when we will get it together and do what needs to be done for our planet. The added benefit to doing the right thing environmentally is that it will fuel-inject the economic engine of our democracy--something last I checked, we sorely need."

 Well, http://jessescrossroadcafe.blogspot.com posted this CFTC's Bart Chilton On Financial Reform, Position Limits, and Curbing 'Disruptive Practices' post. I have to tell you I gave Bart the benefit of the doubt in his statements and to make his case on the video...my feeling was that he was pontificating horse manure. If there was one thing this Financial reform bill was not it is "Heroic". Nor is it particularly patriotic. There are some things that are certainly constructive in it, but not things that big players will not be able to bypass if they really want to - and I am sure they do and will!

However, Chilton sounded like a government lobbyist to the US public not an official protecting them. I do not discount that he may actually mean some or all of what he says...but he lost all credibility with this BS in the article above. The absolute last thing we need are super leveraged derivatives on more products that only exist in the minds of a few computers owned by Goldman and JPM and a few other inside players.

If we trade carbon offsets or derivatives based on them we are really amplifying the problem that exists in many of the commodity markets regarding physical commodity fraud. For example, Gold and Silver vehicles - ETF's and futures. The Gold and Silver backing them, either does not exist in amounts required or does not exist at all. But the elements Gold and Silver actually do exist as physically identifiable objects with which it is possible to validate collateral or discover fabrication.

Green products, however, are quite a different story.  Carbon offsets and carbon trading have NO practical accountability and do not physically exist in an easily verifiable way that is enforceable or manageable.  Therefore, they have no verifiable price. That does not make for a quality market and will further undermine the futures markets in general. Why else do you think Al Gore went to Goldman Tax with the idea? Fraud is a great business. These products are fraudulent from the outset. Is that what will really drive "...fuel injection in the US economic engine"? Why not trade Mel Gibson derivatives via ICE...ohh, I forgot, we already very nearly do that!

Chilton is just one of the crew, in my book and simply adds more evidence to the pool that usurps integrity in the, so called, "Financial Reform Bill".

Banks and Bailouts repaid ahead of schedule???

Well, that's what we are supposed to believe...perhaps we should examine where these guys are getting the money to repay early, and yet can pay bonuses exceeding their profits and additionally still pay for all their lobbyists and shenanigans.

Clue: As long as they don't really have to make the money, they can borrow it into existence and then repay the loan like magic...GM is a great and simple example of the complexity going on at Goldman and JPM and BAC and MS...while individuals continue to get bad press for paying one credit card with another worth only a fraction of these guys obfustations.

Parkour Visions Summit and Talk

On August 13-15th, my friends Rafe Kelley and Tyson Cecka are hosting a parkour summit at their Seattle gym Parkour Visions. For those of you not familiar with the sport, here's a description from the Parkour Visions site:

"The essence of Parkour can be stated simply: it is the art of overcoming obstacles as swiftly and efficiently as possible using only your body. The fundamentals include running, jumping, and climbing, and we build on these fundamentals to improve our ability to pass over, under, around and through obstacles with more complex movements. Parkour is a system of fitness training that improves strength, speed, agility, co-ordination, stamina, endurance, and precision. It offers a full-body workout at any level of experience, and improves your ability to move, to harness your confidence, to change how you see the world. Parkour practitioners are called traceurs."

The summit will include seminars on strength training, injury prevention and rehab, and nutrition, as well as parkour jams, a roundtable and a dinner. I'll be giving a talk titled "Natural Eating for Sustainable Athletic Performance" on Saturday, August 14 from noon to 1:00 pm.

Registration is $40 for the whole summit. You can read a description of it here, and find a link to the registration system at the bottom of this page.

presenting the Finance not so "Reform" bill

I posted previoulsy regarding Warren Buffett's deplorable testimony in Washington regarding the rating agencies and specifically his Moody's service. Things are going swimmingly well for Mr. Buffett's agenda if you tally points by trying to benefit from the free cash being doled out by the government and being able to influence government and regulation. Under considered incarnations of the financial reform bill, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA, BRKB) likely would be required to put up $6 billion to $8 billion in additional collateral on its $63 billion of index derivative contracts. Not to mention requirements on the huge CDS exposure that it has for municipal bonds. I am quite sure you know how this turned out (click here). We got the bill passed so Hathaway did not get a bill and does not need to post additional collateral on those positions. The reality is that Buffett does not have enough money to cover his CDS and other derivatives obligations in the case of a significant market event. The other reality is that is grandpa/uncle Buffett is really a leverage junkie, it will be a sad state of affairs when the tide does indeed go out.

Warren Buffett and other holders of derivatives lobbied hard to exempt existing derivatives contracts from the requirement to post collateral to cover possible losses.

It would now appear that these efforts paid off, with a letter from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln – two of the main authors of the financial regulation bill – saying that the bill "provides legal certainty to those contracts currently in existence, providing that no contract could be terminated, renegotiated, modified, amended or supplemented" ex post facto.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate holds $63 billion in existing derivatives contracts, according to Barclays Capital, so the assurance from lawmakers will save the company from having to commit enormous quantities of capital – possibly as much as $8 billion – to meeting collateral obligations.

Reportedly, the majority of the derivatives sold by Berkshire are equity-index puts, hedging against the possibility of a sustained collapse in stock prices.

I think that one of the greatest assumptions of those able to speculate with the shadow money system is based on there being always being a greater fool or a reasonable way to create one. The rating system was one way and Buffett clearly was deceptive or at the least disingenuous in his testimony regarding it.

Ironically, when the tide goes out...it may not only be JP Morgan and Goldman Tax's (not to mention the rest of the crew) lack of underwear we will be observing...(I for one do not particularly want to see Warren without skivvies) In any case, our revolutionary financial reform bill allows any entity to trade derivatives over-the-counter if they are using them for hedging purposes - for example an airline hedging jet fuel. I think we should get ready for quite a few off-balance sheet airline fuel hedging (I mean speculation) entities funded and run by our discount window supplied and over-leveraged pals...this finance bill is great at managing the people who did not need to be managed, while enabling wolves to roam free via big loopholes for types like Goldman and friends including our buddie Warren.





in case you are interested in seeing some of that testimony, here is a video below:



My comments on June 2nd:

Buffett simply dismisses the biggest bubble of all time as a "bubble-et" and that "...since 300 million people never saw it coming why should Moody's have been expected to see it"...on its face that is rediculous.

More derivative fib level discussion

On the chart below, I have further noted the fib levels that I and my systems like to watch. The 1.128 and 1.272 extensions are major test points for people psychologically, because they pray upon the emotions that people have when they think they have got it wrong. At these extensions people think we are going much lower or much higher (depending on the direction we come into them) and tend to capitulate, go to their local bar for drinks and or start shopping for hookers in the village voice. The irony is also at these levels other market participants are absolutely sure they have it right and a absurdly relaxed taking what they believe to be their high probability breakout trade. This is why breakouts fail most of the time. Breakout trading is very difficult to be successful with unless you have something more substantial influencing your decision than a simple trend line break.

These fibs are called derivatives because they are square roots or derived values of the natural fibs. There are some others that I watch as well for example 80.9. I do not look at these numbers for 100% dead nut precision, though their accuracy is uncanny, but what they really do is increase the odds one way or another for the trade probabilities. 

As you can see from the current setup we are about to test the shorts balance of capitulation versus desire for alcohol and hookers. 655 is the level on the TF. Probability favors that we should reverse hard around those levels and I will be watching closely. TF has a tendency to overshoot so I would view that as a good opportunity. For the SP500 the levels are between 1106 and 1112. So that is a zone. Think of it that way. We may stop exactly at 1112 or 1106 but we could also shoot up to 1118 or 1120...still probabilities favor the contrarian. The funny thing is to watch how people behave around these levels. You should see bloggers and analysts totally reverse their view and take losses just as we did at the recent lows.

Its all very interesting and our game is not to be perfect just probabilistic. I would like to point out also that in the chart below that is most definitely NOT a good inverse head and shoulders. It is deformed and therefore less probable. First swing high did not take out previous swing high resistance and the retest broke the left shoulder lows...these are both signs of weakness in the pattern.

A Visit To Pike Place Fish Market In Downtown Seattle

You may have seen it on television.  The place where fish is thrown and caught by the workers at the fish market at pike's place market in downtown Seattle.  I've been here before, but I always enjoy going back.  I decided to be a tourist and take pictures of the famous sign and guys throwing the fish, but I also wanted to photograph and get to know some locals in the area.

I stopped and asked a few locals if I could take their photograph while they were relaxing on a break from work.  There were a few working at the farmers market, one was a street performer and one was a local that stood in the same spot, day after day.  I knew this because I went on a different day and there he was.

There are several tourists enjoying the area and it is pretty exciting to see all of the produce laid out perfectly with the smell of flowers in the air.  Even though the open air market is full of fish, it is surprisingly clean for the amount of food that comes in and out of the market each day.

I took my time and walked to the park that's next to the market, lounged around to watch the people and took a second walk through the "food mall."  The first Starbucks is located here and all of the tourists have to wait in line for a drink to say they've been there.  Perhaps they weren't aware that they could walk one block to find another Starbucks without a wait.

I really enjoy Seattle.  It's a big city without the feeling of a big city.  I tried to visit SAM (Seattle Art Museum) but each time I took to trip, they were closed.  Perhaps next time.  There are several things to do in this city and if you come for a visit, I hope you like seafood.

I have a lot more photographs to share from the market, but perhaps in another blog.  For more of my photographs of humans in their habitat, click HERE.