Saturday, January 22, 2011

Germany - not an island in the rough...

Germany is certainly in better shape than Spain or Greece, however with banks like Deutschebank waiting to blow up and with more off-balance sheet and derivatives risk than a lot of notorious offenders in the US, things are not what they are hyped up to be. Interestingly the DAX has not made an effort to even broach the 8136 high (double top) that it established in 2000 and 2007. This is despite all the trumpeting of salacious and highly laundered numbers in addition to the sundry government interventions and simulations that are supposedly imparting an economic situation in Germany that is "THE BEST EVER"...really? Apparently, that is not believed by everyone...

China and India can not continue to remain bastions and consumers of Germany's and the world's wares when they are suffering their own huge market dislocations, credit bubbles, real-estate bubbles and the widest ever disparity between rich and poor. The seeds are sown all over the modern world for social unrest and tumult. No country can be an island with customers who are as at risk as this.